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Articles10/11/2024by Makana 360

Analysis Report: How and Why Donald Trump Won the 2024 Presidential Election

Introduction

At Makana 360, we believe that winning modern elections requires a multi-dimensional approach to communications strategy, integrating real-time data, sentiment analysis, and influencer engagement. Our proprietary tools allows us to dissect and understand complex voter behavior patterns by analyzing millions of online conversations, uncovering targeted narratives, and amplifying insights through influencer metrics. This report showcases Makana 360’s analysis of Donald Trump’s 2024 campaign communication strategies. Using our advanced tools, we examined how his innovative approach to strategic communication and analysis, including targeted messaging, alternative media platforms, and influencer engagement, contributed to a deeply resonant and data-backed campaign. Our analysis captures the essence of Trump’s multifaceted strategy, with data-backed evidence that illustrates why his unconventional campaign triumphed in areas where traditional methods fell short.

Strategic Summary with Makana 360’s Communication Strategy Approach

In today’s media landscape, a multifaceted communication strategy has become essential for effective campaign engagement. Makana 360’s communication strategy, grounded in real-time sentiment analysis, influencer metrics, and targeted message amplification, is uniquely designed to address the complex patterns in voter behavior and sentiment. This data-driven approach harnesses real-time analytics, uncovering voter motivations and aligning narratives with the current pulse of the electorate. By leveraging Buraq’s digital listening tool, we provide nuanced insights into voter sentiment, allowing campaigns to adapt their strategy based on emerging trends and digital influence.

Our team’s insights offer campaign professionals the depth and precision needed to connect with audiences in the modern political landscape. By combining traditional strategic messaging with the latest in digital analytics, Makana 360 not only predicts but helps shape voter engagement and public discourse.

 

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  • A Multifaceted Digital Platform Strategy

 

Active on X (Twitter)

Trump X account was active from the beginning of October until 4 November and got around 46 million interactions

 

We generated a summary of his posts and conversations on X by AI tool and were focused on:

  • He claims he would not support a federal abortion ban under any circumstances.
  • He thinks the economy will be better than ever if he wins the election.
  • He says he will cut taxes for workers and small businesses.
  • He asserts that his administration will protect Hindu Americans against radical left anti-religious agendas.
  • He refers to himself as “the heart and soul of America.”
  • He criticizes Kamala Harris for comparing her political opponents to evil mass murderers.
  • He calls Mark Cuban a “dumb guy” who thinks he’s hot stuff but isn’t anything.
  • He expresses solidarity with veterans, union members, soldiers, steelworkers, farmers, autoworkers, and patriotic moms and dads of every race, religion, color, and creed.
  • He wants to make sure everyone knows that he loves them all and gives them credit where it is due.
  • He believes that during his presidency, there was peace in the Middle East, and he intends to restore it again soon.

 

Twitter/X and Twitch as Cornerstones

  • Trump’s 2024 campaign heavily relied on digital platforms, specifically Twitter (now X), Twitch, and podcasts, to bypass traditional media filters and reach supporters directly. Our data from Makana 360 indicates significant activity on these platforms, with Trump’s content consistently outperforming Harris’s in both engagement and reach. Makana 360 data showed that Trump-related posts on Twitter generated over 8 million posts in the election’s final week alone.
  • Trump’s reliance on X (Twitter), especially under Elon Musk’s ownership, enabled an unfiltered connection with supporters. Tweets from high-profile influencers like Elon Musk and Benny Johnson significantly amplified Trump’s messages, with Musk’s posts achieving an engagement rate of 171,000 per tweet and a reach of over 203 million per tweet.

 

With this link 

 

Strategic Use of Platforms

Case in Point: Twitch and Podcasts

Engaging the Unconventional Audience via Twitch

  • Trump’s campaign ventured into Twitch, a platform traditionally associated with younger, gaming-focused demographics. Streaming rallies and speeches allowed him to reach new voters who were otherwise disengaged from traditional media. Makana 360 data highlights this as a highly effective move: views on Trump’s Twitch streams surged, with younger demographics in battleground states like Michigan and Pennsylvania engaging with his content in numbers previously unseen in political campaigns.

 

Podcast Influence: A Long-Form Connection

  • Trump’s appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast, attracting over 26 million views within 24 hours, underscored his campaign’s ability to captivate audiences through in-depth, unscripted formats. The podcast allowed him to showcase his unfiltered style, which resonated well with younger, often undecided male voters. Makana 360 data identified this event as a major engagement driver, with an associated 15% increase in engagement in the days following the podcast appearance.

 

Influencer and Content Creator Collaborations

  • Trump’s collaborations with digital influencers like Logan Paul and Adin Ross also illustrate the campaign’s adaptability. Engaging young, politically disengaged audiences proved effective in cultivating incremental support in a demographic that predominantly leans Democratic. Makana 360’s influencer analysis highlighted top influencers like Elon Musk, whose posts favorably amplified Trump’s messages to millions.

 

  1. Reframing Polling Data and Redefining Voter Sentiment

Creating Alternative Measures of Support and Tactical Shifts in Polling Interpretation

  • Facing consistently low performance in traditional national polls, Trump’s team pivoted to a narrative that questioned polling reliability, emphasizing alternative support indicators such as social media reach and engagement. By framing the mainstream media and polling institutions as biased, Trump created a perception of mistrust, which resonated with his base.
  • Faced with consistently unfavorable national polls, Trump’s team strategically questioned polling methodologies and directed supporters’ attention to alternative support indicators such as social media engagement. Trump’s online presence, fueled by key messaging and influencer reinforcement, drove home the narrative that traditional polls were unreliable. Makana 360 data shows this narrative in action: engagement around hashtags like #FakeNews and #StopTheBias saw a 70% increase as Trump’s followers actively reshared and engaged with posts questioning media and polling biases.

 

Engaging Republican-Leaning Undecideds

  • Traditional polling often excluded undecided or leaning voters, who tended not to commit in advance but leaned Republican. Trump’s campaign successfully targeted these voters, using tailored messages that encouraged action, particularly in swing states where such small shifts could be pivotal. 
  • Trump’s team strategically targeted “soft Republican” and undecided voters who leaned toward conservative values but were not traditionally motivated to vote. By addressing their concerns on issues like the economy, free speech, and a distrust of mainstream media, Trump’s messaging succeeded in mobilizing these demographics. Makana 360 data from swing states like Michigan and Pennsylvania revealed this tactic’s effectiveness, showing in Pennsylvania for example a 20% increase in Trump-related engagement among previously inactive accounts in the last weeks of the campaign, indicating a successful appeal to these voters.

 

  1. Targeted Messaging and Swing State Outreach

Localized Issues and Swing State Outreach

  • Trump’s team focused intensively on swing states, customizing messages to address local issues and demographics. In Michigan, for example, Trump’s outreach to the Muslim community involved leveraging the Gaza crisis, which appeared in digital conversations with a surge of engagement near Election Day. According to Makana 360 data, Michigan saw a 30% rise in Trump-related discussions in the days leading to the election.

 

Direct Engagement with Voter Issues in Swing States

  • Makana 360 analysis indicated a significant role played by influencers like Charlie Kirk and pro-Trump channels, which engaged localized audiences by discussing state-specific issues, effectively bypassing traditional media narratives. In Pennsylvania, Trump’s rhetoric around manufacturing jobs and economic resilience resonated with voters concerned about job security. Our sentiment analysis showed a positive swing in conversations around Trump in Pennsylvania, coinciding with his campaign stops and digital outreach in the region.

 

  1. Capitalizing on Mistrust of Traditional Media and Anti-Media Messaging

Anti-Media Messaging as a Mobilization Tool

  • Trump’s established mistrust of mainstream media proved to be an asset. Our analysis shows that his repeated assertions of “fake news” and “media bias” effectively insulated his base from unfavorable coverage, particularly following statements from Elon Musk questioning journalistic integrity. Sentiment analysis reveals that, although negative news about Trump spiked in October, his core supporters remained largely unaffected, with negative sentiment diminishing over time, reflecting a resilience to media criticism. This tactic amplified support within Trump’s base and attracted those who felt misrepresented by traditional outlets.

Key Influencers and Amplified Narratives

  • Influential figures like Charlie Kirk and media channels aligned with Trump’s narrative, actively promoting skepticism towards traditional outlets. Makana 360 identified Elon Musk’s substantial role as an influential amplifier, with his tweets encouraging a broader sentiment of institutional mistrust, effectively reframing the political discourse in Trump’s favour, while high-engagement accounts like @realDonaldTrump and @CharlieKirk11 bolstered anti-media messaging, creating a feedback loop that continuously reinforced Trump’s stance on media unreliability.

 

  1. Unique Findings from Makana 360 Social Listening Data

Increased Digital Momentum Over Time

  • Analysis from October to November indicated a clear upward trend in engagement for Trump, peaking days before the election with over 8 million posts on social media. In contrast, Kamala Harris’s engagements saw lesser spikes, aligning with our predictions of voter leanings towards Trump in the final stretch.

 

Top Key Messages

  • Through Makana 360’s analysis, we identified that key terms like “Donald Trump,” “MAGA,” and “Trump Rally” were dominant in Trump-related conversations. These terms effectively communicated a consistent message of strength, patriotism, and grassroots mobilization, which resonated strongly with his base and influenced undecided conservatives. Notably, “fake news” and “media bias” featured prominently, amplifying Trump’s anti-media messaging to his followers.

Sentiment and Hashtag Patterns

  • Makana 360 sentiment data revealed that while both candidates experienced high negative sentiment (56% for Trump, 58% for Harris), Trump’s positive sentiment at 14% was marginally higher than Harris’s 12%. This sentiment was reinforced by hashtags like #Trump2024, #MAGA, and #StopTheBias, which saw an increase in use, particularly after significant events like his Joe Rogan podcast appearance. Positive sentiment around Trump was notably tied to themes like patriotism, “Make America Great Again” (#MAGA), and local concerns, particularly in swing states. Harris’s messaging, while resonant in certain progressive circles, failed to penetrate broader undecided demographics, as indicated by consistently lower positive sentiment and engagement.

 

 

Social Media Users Bios 

  • Makana 360’s bio analysis showed frequent use of terms like “patriot,” “freedom,” “Christian,” and “family” among Trump’s supporters, indicating a strong alignment with traditional American values and a desire for a candidate who embodies those ideals. Hashtags associated with these values, such as #AmericaFirst and #PatriotsUnite, reinforced Trump’s appeal to this demographic.

 

 

  1. Model Validation: Makana 360’s Predictive Accuracy

Data-Driven Validation of Trump’s Electoral Success

  • Makana 360’s prediction model, shared 48 hours before Election Day, forecasted Trump at 55.65% and Harris at 44.35%, with Trump ultimately receiving 312 electoral votes (58%) and Harris 226 (42%). This accurate projection underscored the reliability of Makana’s proprietary Makana 360 analysis tool, integrating real-time social metrics, engagement, and sentiment to paint a comprehensive picture of voter behavior.

 

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A New Paradigm in Communication Strategy

Donald Trump’s victory was a testament to a well-orchestrated digital-first strategy that capitalized on mistrust in traditional media, engaged hard-to-reach voters, and embraced alternative media channels. This approach successfully resonated with a diverse base, from disenchanted Republicans to previously disengaged younger voters. By understanding the significance of sentiment, influencer power, and real-time engagement in shaping voter opinions, Trump’s team demonstrated the impact of adaptability in modern campaigns.

Makana 360’s analysis reaffirms the effectiveness of leveraging digital insights and alternative narratives to accurately forecast outcomes in high-stakes elections. Our approach offers a blueprint for how data intelligence, digital strategy, and nuanced sentiment analysis can guide campaigns toward a deeper understanding of voter behavior, enhancing both prediction accuracy and strategic decision-making.

 

Strategic Insights: How Makana 360 Can Elevate Political Campaigns

The Communications Strategy Team at Makana 360 believes that data intelligence is at the heart of effective campaign strategy. Our use of advanced analytics demonstrates the value of combining real-time social insights, influencer metrics, and sentiment analysis to create a communication framework that resonates deeply with target audiences. For future campaigns, leveraging data in this way will not only enhance voter engagement but also provide a reliable foundation for strategic decisions that reflect the true pulse of the electorate.

Signed,
Communications Strategy Team
Makana 360

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